As the SNP look set to dominate the Scottish political landscape for at least another decade it is right that we ask questions about what will trigger a second referendum.
We think the most plausible and publicly acceptable trigger is a second SNP majority at Holyrood. This would present them with the challenge of timing any referendum correctly because, lose again and there will be no third chance.
The SNP have been cautious in stating that another majority in May would trigger the next referendum so we think it a touch strange that Nicola Sturgeon continues to state that the UK voting to leave the EU would be a trigger for calling the second referendum.
There is logic in using Brexit as a trigger. If the UK does vote to leave the EU it will be on the back of voters in England. There’s not a huge degree of difference, but Scotland seems to be marginally more pro-EU than England.
Here’s what gets us though: Sturgeon wants to use Brexit to leave a Union (the UK) that fought incredibly hard for Scotland to remain within it, in favour of a Union (the EU) which was less than hospitable to the proposed independent Scotland joining..
We find it a little confusing that the SNP think ‘UK bad’ under any and all circumstances, but that ‘EU good’ without any criticism.
If Brexit is realised, the UK economy will undoubtedly take a short-term hit. So given the economy in general was such a weakness for the SNP during the first referendum campaign, is it wise to use Brexit as a catalyst for leaving the UK? We could find ourselves out of two Unions and out on a limb.